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Mulvihill x Wealthsimple – April Commentary

April Performance and Market Commentary(PDF)

The interday and intraday volatility of the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Indices leaves one confused, if not bewildered.  White House tweets or Mark Zuckerberg appearing before Congress while not meaningful in the long term, can send markets screaming off in one direction or another, only to reverse within days or even hours.  The sentiment swings are hard on the nervous system, but still must be viewed as noise.  In a word, we remain trendless.  Until the markets breakout above the January high or breakdown below the February low, there is no definitive answer as to what direction the next major move will take.  Despite the lack of a clear resolution, the market action during this consolidation has made “keeping the faith” more and more difficult.  In particular, the lack of strong follow-through when the market rallies is disconcerting.    Since the February lows, the S&P 500 has several times made a mini breakout from a small pattern and looked to be headed higher, but each time there has been an inability to sustain momentum and the market fell back below the breakout point.  In the last letter, I voiced concern about the lack of breadth as markets rally, and that also continues to be a worry.  The bulls need to become more aggressive; as the old adage says, “It takes buying to move prices up, but markets can fall of their own weight.”…..

 

This document may contain certain forward-looking statements. These statements may relate to future events or future performance and reflect management’s current expectations. Such forward-looking statements reflect management’s current beliefs and are based on information currently available to management. Although the forward-looking statements are based upon what management believes to be reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Neither the Funds nor their respective managers assume any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement to reflect new events or circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statement. Historical results and trends should not be taken as indicative of future operations. The Fund is not guaranteed, its value changes frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for period less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data take into account distributions or dividends paid to unit holders but do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns.

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